Assuming future intelligence
Oct 16th, 2011 by admin
The international order is changing profoundly. As a result in 10 years the landscape will different than the way it is now. In today’s increasingly complex and unpredictable international environment the major intelligence challenge for national security resides in acquiring capabilities to comply with the Information Tsunami. Major geopolitical trends may be understood through open sources, intelligence being the most important tool that we have in preventing terrorist attacks. Building the future framework for approaching challenges in intelligence requires coordination among diplomatic and military/civilian intelligence agencies and law enforcement communities, international cooperation, as well as cooperation between the public and private sector.
During the Cold War, the Intelligence Community (IC) from West built up an impressive body of expertise on Soviet society. In contrast to the massive but arguably Soviet threat now we face a different set of challenges brought up by different adversaries: less developed state with unstable regimes and unclear future, without a democratic society, powerful non-state actors, as well as financed international terrorist and criminal groups, in most cases organized on a religious basis or ethnic hatred, and individuals with increasingly easy access to conventional individual armament, explosive and to biological or chemical material. All these adversaries have less powerful weapons than the Soviets but are more likely to use them. Unlike a single massive threat in the Cold War, today we must worry about threats emanating from almost everywhere.
Inevitably, in an uncertain world, our judgments could be damaged by different key factors such as: national and international governance, the change in international affair in all its dimensions, the economic growth and the new role and ambitions of emerging countries, global population trends and global trend in demand for food, water, energy, and natural resources, the role of the nation-state, international business and the new role of financial institution, shift in power relationship and international alignments, and the changing nature of the war and the future conflicts and the role of the United States. There are “special relations” among countries which could change very fast the course of history: India–Pakistan, Palestine–Israel, South Korea–North Korea, China–Taiwan. Today we have a more fluid set of international alignments than we had after the Second World War. The breakdown of consensus over important issues as Iraq or Afghanistan created for a moment a “gap of trust” within NATO. To have sustainable global stability NATO should “go globally” because its viability was proved by a long history of facts. We need Japan and Australia to join in.
The Middle Orient is obviously in a tremendous flux of change and looking out 2-5 years we will see a different picture. East Asia is also on the brink of a major change, as China continues to move towards greater economic openness and to a new concept in military affair. In China the key question is whether the political system is sufficient elastic and their leaders imaginative enough to accommodate the rapid economic growth and the social pressures.
North Korea and Iran haves experience in practicing denial and deception, both counties having closed and authoritarian systems that deny access to their dual-use nuclear programs. The solution for both: international sanctions and military readiness.
The EU is an important actor in international framework and will be challenged in the near future by a lot of risks including the survival of euro. The future will bring challenges in both the economic and financial system and in the way relations will be managed between countries. It is a gap reviled by the economic and financial crises between the vision of the European countries and the EU Institutions (bailout of Greece; banning the admission in the Schengen aria of Romania and Bulgaria- both comply with the European Communitarian Aquis). Above all, the US-European relationship should be reconsidered and this is a challenge for Brussels. For EU austerity is the key word.
The new challenge for a new European reality: “Intermarium concept”. “Intermarium” is a term borrowed from inter-war Polish leader Gen. Josef Pilsudski, who understood that Germany and the Soviet Union would not be permanently weak. His solution was to propose an alliance stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, encompassing countries west of the Carpathians. In the existing situation the role of Poland became central to Europe. The strategic partnerships of Poland with Sweden, Romania and Turkey and the presence in the Visegrad group (Poland, Hungry, Czech and Slovakia) makes the East and Central Europe a bridge between two centers of gravity: the old one in Atlantic and the new one in the Pacific Ocean. At the same time the Russian resurgence in the former Warsaw Treaty aria and the new and strong relation with Germany, based on economic complementary, should be counterbalanced by a new geopolitical concept as long as the US stays involved in Larger Middle Orient and Pacific aria.
In the next 10 years the Intelligence Community from NATO countries will still be focused on terrorism, narcotics, organized crime, money laundering and proliferation of weapon of mass destruction. The new forms of terrorism based on the use of the new technologies became important challenges on the IC agenda as cyberspace attacks and threats to the space system.
“Cyberspace will provide tremendous opportunities for the future, but also tremendous vulnerabilities,” Army Gen. Keith B. Alexander the commander of U.S. Cyber Command quote citing the explosion in use of the Internet, email, social networking and instant messaging sites all over the world.
Internet became a new intelligence landscape which needs a new set of technique and processes and new “cyber-intelligence unit(s)”. The real-world intelligence techniques and processes should be modified for cyberspace. Vulnerabilities in cyberspace have been consequential to military and privately operated systems where sensitive information has been extracted, circulated, or manipulated. Critical infrastructures, including electrical, communications, and transportation networks are known to have serious vulnerabilities. Cyber-attacks against Estonia and Georgia temporarily crippled critical infrastructures of those countries. For the time being a set of cyber war guidelines and measures of protection of computer infrastructure should be put in place.
In term of space we have to remember the Chinese anti-satellite weapon program which targeted military/civilian satellites (demolition of Feng Yun -1C Chinese meteorological satellite). A set of new measure of protection against laser weapons and ballistic anti-ship missiles and a new strategy for space war is needed.
Another old challenge takes the history stage again: namely piracy. The number of actions from the terrorist groups in armed attacks, robberies and kidnapping for ransom by pirates near Horn of Africa and the southern Red Sea has notably increased lately. The piracy phenomenon is a huge challenge for the security of the oil and goods maritime routes and an international military response is the only solution.
We are long a way from an era in which we were looking for big targets: army divisions. Now we are looking for small targets on the move (suicide attackers, VBIED, IED). Military operations fuse with the intelligence operations and the real time information sharing is calling for “refresh assessment” and coordination. The direct support to war-fighters creates new tasks and challenges for IC (the cooperation between military and intelligence agencies during the Afghan war was remarkable).
The revolution in information and telecommunication challenge us in every area and transform day to day services and the workplace we function. The rapid diffusion of mobile phones and Internet connectivity enables much of the world’s population to join networks that transcend national borders, giving ethnicity, class, ideology, and other elements of authority challenged in a variety of indirect ways: social and political movements. This revolution brings power shift from official administration to identity-centric groups gradually supplant the authority of traditional nation-states.
Public scrutiny of the intelligence services is a challenge which can improve the quality of their work and it is necessary because larger privileges granted after 9/11, advantageous perhaps in the short term, are equally challenging in the long run. The challenge of global terrorism requires intelligence agencies to sustain vital popular support among citizens. Public understanding is essential to the professional conduct of intelligence. Civil society, media, independent NGOs and corporate world, must play a key role in the prevention of terrorism. We need security policy activities within communities and a partnership between IC and non-traditional partners, local government.
Another challenge is directly related to the functioning of intelligence agencies themselves. The intelligence agencies are by definition bureaucratic organizations with the full set of characteristics including hierarchy and rigidity, which resist sharing and cooperation. There is an ever growing overlap between the functions of law enforcement agencies and national security intelligence which should be solved before giving birth to new challenges.
International cooperation is vital today and is probably one of the most important challenges. After 9/11 states highly involved in fighting terrorism, such as the US and the UK, started close cooperation with states such as Pakistan, Syria and Libya. The cooperation faced many challenges and traps. The problem of international cooperation between intelligence services is described as crucial to gaining advantage over new threats.
Terrorism requires an extensive financial resource that is why the terrorist organizations engage in cooperation with other terrorist organizations in the world forming alliance of convenience without discrimination of race or ideology. There are a variety of sources from which terrorist groups supply funds: conventional criminal activities, funds from wealthy individuals or institutions, funds supplied by other groups, fees collected from members, racketeering, commercial activities operated by “fake companies”, etc. Among the methods used for money-laundering and transferring funds to members is wiring money less than declared, using off-shore banks for financial transactions, and issuing fake invoices in the name of “fake companies”.
The solution to this challenge: ratification and implementation of UN instruments; criminalizing financing of terrorism and associated money laundering; freezing and confiscated of terrorist assets; reporting suspicious transactions related to terrorism; international cooperation (arrangement or other mechanism for mutual legal assistance or information exchange); alternative remittance; wire transfers (countries should take measures to require financial institutions, including money remitters, to include accurate and meaningful originator information-name, address and account number-on funds transfers and related messages that are sent, and the information should remain with the transfer or related message through the payment chain); clarify status of non-governmental organizations (the NGO are susceptible to terrorist and money laundries activities); cash couriers (countries should have measures in place to detect the physical cross-border transportation of currency and bearer negotiable instruments, including a declaration system or other disclosure).
Banks should be utmost careful with the transaction of their customers who are based in offshore centers, free zones, and international financial centers which apply strict banking and privacy principles; such centers provide banking privacy, tax advantages, and legal immunities and therefore they are suitable for keeping funds earned from organized crime and used for financing terrorism.
We conclude by summing up the main challenges intelligence services have to deal with post 9/11: the transition and turmoil which continue to be constant; the new global players that will change the global landscape; Europe will face significant challenge; the Pacific aria depends on what will be the position of Japan-balance against or bandwagon (!?) with China; Russia is still balanced between an emerging energy power and state in decline; the ever-present globalization is still on the course of being shaped; challenges to Governance which include technology dispersion non smooth economic and demographic trends, the emergence of identity politics and specially religion, sustaining the democracy wave, migrant populations and the revamp of regional and global institution; insecurity resulting from factors such as significant economic, cultural and political convulsion (more conflicts than wars); transforming international terrorism (one big organization as Al-Qaida will be suppressed by number of decentralized groups, cells and individual).
Although facts behind the importance of these challenges are very clear, it is yet unclear how successful the intelligence services will be in tackling them in an unpredictable world!
